Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $799,188$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{819,290.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 133.6)}}\) (asimptote \(819,290.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $82,726$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,806.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,806.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,769$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,549,682$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(6.84 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,877,651.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 146.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,877,651.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $211,801$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.75 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,104.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(203,104.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,337,986$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $117,300$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.7 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,642.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(123,642.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,448$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,643.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,643.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,242$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $175,380$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,481.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,481.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,593$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.19 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,069.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,069.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,973$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,016$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(4.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,949.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 135.8)}}\) (asimptote \(81,949.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,466$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.67 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,565.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,565.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,960$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,497$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.91 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,495.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 189.6)}}\) (asimptote \(114,495.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,024$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.84 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 185.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,178$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $116,148$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.24 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,985.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.2)}}\) (asimptote \(123,985.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,159$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,142.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 158.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,142.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,832$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,704$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,691.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,335$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,287.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 112.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,287.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,333$ on 2020-10-07
